How many mass shootings will take place in 2023 in the US, as reported by massshootingtracker.site?
14
510Ṁ327
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
748

Will resolve up to a month later to allow for missing reports to come in (Copied from https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/how-many-mass-shootings-will-take-p-3ea536a68b3c)

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Why is massshootingtracker so much higher than gunviolencearchive even though they seem to have the same definition? YTD 310 at GVA and 363 at MST... my extrapolation for GVA puts the projected total at 748 but if MST is running so much higher, I would put it at 876 for full year...

predictedHIGHER

Extrapolations as of 7/29:

GVA: 721

MST: 827

Meanwhile "mass killings" are at 37 for the year as of 10/26 per AP/Northeastern U, which is how "mass shootings" reads to a significant cohort.

New comparisons (11/11):

MST: 678

GVA: 599

GVA full year extrapolation: 665

MST (assuming it stays ~13% higher than GVA): 752

@AlQuinn massshootertracker counts shooters being shot as well, where as gunviolencearchive does not, this may be the difference in definition you were looking for

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