Will resolve up to a month later to allow for missing reports to come in (Copied from https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/how-many-mass-shootings-will-take-p-3ea536a68b3c)
1,000@Twig By 2024-02-01, there had already been 46 mass shootings. As of 2025-03-14, there have been only 30 reported to have occurred before 2025-02-01. (I use data no newer than February to account for reporting delays.)
In 2024, there were 575 mass shootings total. Given that - based on 2024's data - mass shootings seem to occur at a reasonably consistent rate over time, I expect significantly fewer mass shootings in 2025 compared to 2024. A direct comparison against 2024's data would suggest a value closer to 30/46×575 = ~375. This seems unreasonably low, suggesting reporting delays may be more of a factor than I had considered; still, I expect a lower result than in 2024.
To check for reporting delays, I plotted cumulative mass shootings over time from 2025's data, and found no obvious breakpoint. This would indicate reporting delays are not significant.
Repeating this analysis with 2023's data - there were 59 mass shootings before 2023-02-01, from which this method would have predicted 59/46×575 = ~738. The actual value for 2023 was 759.
The 400-600 range is reasonably in-line with historical trends, except for the 2020-2023 period of unusually elevated mass shootings, which I attribute to the effects of COVID.
If I lose this bet, I expect that I did so because of either a significant increase in political violence (or knock-on effects from the political situation in general, e.g. an increase in general violence due to poor economic conditions), or because reporting delays were more impactful than I expected.