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MANIFOLD
Does Tucker Carlson have more political power than Jeff Bezos?
12
Ṁ100Ṁ250
resolved Oct 27
Resolved as
31%

In part this is to give me an excuse to implement a new market rule. This market will resolve to a random sample average of the time before close. Feel free to argue implementation details in comments below

Sep 24, 4:06pm: Does Tucker Carlson havevmore political power than Jeff Bezos? → Does Tucker Carlson have more political power than Jeff Bezos?

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predictedNO

Samples were taken from the following hour times on October 1: 9 3 16 22 10 7 17 11 15 13

Average of these values is 31.2%

I did not implement this as a rule because I would need to write a way to query at a time myself, and that seems rather difficult

Tucker Carlson has some political power, but he doesn't have any Bezos.

This market will resolve to a random sample average of the time before close.

~36%?

predictedNO

@BoltonBailey it surprises me that it is only 6. I would have guessed ≥10

predictedYES

I hear the argument that Tucker Carlson only has power among his crowd but that crowd is nevertheless millions of people. When two people to the right of center go head to head, his take will have weight. All Bezos has is his money to spend on lobbying and political ads, Carlson has people who will vote according to his opinions.

predictedNO

Tucker Carlson has a net worth of around $400 million according to the internet. Do you think that he wouldn't alter his message for the opportunity to get that much again, which would be peanuts for Bezos to give out of his stock holdings?

predictedNO

serious argument: Tucker Carlson has a lot of power but only within his ideological niche of viewers (it would be harder for him to change people's minds once they are in his viewership with the associated ideology) whereas Bezos can give money to promote almost any ideology he wants (i.e. can support both left- and right-wing politicians who are pro-big tech) making Bezos overall more powerful

@arae It's like in the Fountainhead. Telling people what they want to hear can bring you fame and fortune, but it doesn't give you influence.

beff jezos