any particular reason you're this sure now? @egroj

@jacksonpolack he's not young, not a politician, hasn't even announced that he wants to run, and a lot of people want to be president. Also very unlikely that he will challenge Trump, so has to wait until Trump dies

@egroj if you see the market for will he run by 2032 is at 19%, I don't expect much change for any date after (probably it will get lower afterwards, he's more likely to be less famous once he gets older among people that haven't even been born yet). If he runs he has to win nomination (less than 50%) and then win the general election (about 50%). So less than 4% makes sense to me