This market will resolve YES if, before May 1st 2023, the House of Representatives holds a vote that would remove the Speaker of the House from office. The outcome of such a vote will not have any bearing on the resolution of this market, as long as the vote takes place. This vote takes the form of a "motion to vacate the chair"; see Wikipedia article.

Context: In the 117th Congress, only a party caucus or conference (i.e. House Democrats or House Republicans, acting by a majority) can force the House to hold a vote to remove the Speaker. See https://rollcall.com/2023/01/02/mccarthy-releases-house-rules-package-still-short-speaker-votes/. This rule is codified as clause 2(a)(3) of rule IX of the Standing Rules of the House.

The rules package released by House Republicans would lower that threshold to five Republican members. In particular, Section 3(c) of the rules package would provide that "During the One Hundred Eighteenth 3 Congress, clause 2(a)(3) of rule IX shall not apply to any 4 resolution causing a vacancy in the Office of Speaker that 5 is offered by a Member of the majority party caucus or 6 conference and has accumulated 4 cosponsors from such 7 party caucus or conference at the time it is offered."

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Close date updated to 2023-04-30 11:00 pm