At the end of 2024, Wikipedia will say there were this many total people killed by the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine
At the end of 2024, Wikipedia will say there were this many total people killed by the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine
10
390Ṁ322
Jan 1
100k
expected

Note: if it's changing a lot at that time, I will take whatever it stablizes to. I will do my best not to accept a vandalized result

If there is not a definitive answer, I will resollve to my best judgement given the infformation presented. I will describe the procedure before resolving and give chance for feedback, but this will depend on its content at that time, so is intenionally undefined for now

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
6mo

A I understanding correctly this is total of deaths of both Ukrainians and Russians?

2y

Current casualties:

2y

@Yev Taking just the confirmed deaths, that's 28k

At the end of 2024, Wikipedia will say there were this many total people killed by the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

Note: if I get complaints about the bounds before this has been up 36h, I may pull the market down and replace it

Once that's done, I'll make secondary markets for civilians, Russians, Ukrainians

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy