They don't have to become president, just win the election.
If Harris/Trump is just running as Vice President and their presidential candidate wins the election, this market would still resolve NO.
The market will resolve whenever AP News declares that only these two candidates have a chance to win or announces a winner.
This market is inspired by @April 's market:
1,000
3.00@Lion I think a fair way to resolve this is when AP calls enough states such that less than 270 EVs are left uncalled. Is that a fair interpretation of "whenever AP News declares that only these two candidates have a chance to win?"
@Kraalnaxx I would be happy with that.
However that could allow resolution and then it turns out that EV split is 268 268 2 or something similar. In that scenario, do I recall there is a possibility of third placed candidate becoming president? If so, might it be better to wait for race to be called (near certainty that 270 will be reached)?
Perhaps that isn't a concern re the "don't have to become president just win the election" clause.
If that is not a concern then perhaps it is still better to wait until most electoral votes a different candidate can reach is less than that leading candidate has with very near certainty? This could be as much as 66.6% of EV called rather than just 50%.