Will either Harris or Trump win the 2024 Presidential Election?
Will either Harris or Trump win the 2024 Presidential Election?
39
1kṀ32kresolved Nov 6
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
They don't have to become president, just win the election.
If Harris/Trump is just running as Vice President and their presidential candidate wins the election, this market would still resolve NO.
The market will resolve whenever AP News declares that only these two candidates have a chance to win or announces a winner.
This market is inspired by @April 's market:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ551 | |
2 | Ṁ83 | |
3 | Ṁ79 | |
4 | Ṁ68 | |
5 | Ṁ47 |
Sort by:
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' become law by July 4th?
37% chance
Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?
40% chance
Trump calls for deportation of Zohran Mamdani by EOY2025?
63% chance
Who will be elected mayor of New York City in 2025?
Trump approval rating 45% or higher on Fourth of July?
34% chance
Will Trump strip USA citizenship from at least one full citizen by the end of the year?
87% chance
Trump voids Biden’s pardons?
Will @dieworkwear successfully get $5k USD raised for Cat Rescue charities?
3% chance
Biden ranked below Carter in next C-SPAN Presidential Historians Survey
72% chance
In which month and year will the debt ceiling either be suspended again, increased, or abolished?