Who will be the richest person in the world at the end of 2024? (Forbes)
Basic
153
13k
Dec 31
39%
Elon Musk
25%
Bernard Arnault & family*
34%
Jeff Bezos
0.2%
Larry Ellison
0.5%
Mark Zuckerberg
0.3%
Bill Gates
1.5%
Other

This question will be resolved accordingly to Forbes (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires) on January 1st 2025 at 00:00 UTC. (If the page had some technical failures, I'd adjust this time accordingly or change the source.)

*will be considered as one person for this question as listed by Forbes (If Forbes splits this position, the term "Bernard Arnault & family" will represent Bernard Arnault himself.)


This question will not be affected by any name changes.

This question will close on December 31st 2024 at 23:59 UTC.

If you'd like me to add another person, please leave a comment.

If you have any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market.

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@BestGuess shared this link under the January question which is accessible without signing up: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/30/tesla-shares-slide-after-judge-voids-elon-musks-56-billion-compensation.html

@ftkurt Regarding your question, there is a chance that it'll be overruled. So I'd say it's priced in pretty accurate, but that's in your hands to change it ;)

@Lion I was actually curious if that ruling is reflected on forbes link. But i already did some digging, it seems the link is showing wealth with Elon owning 55b stocks in question.

@ftkurt Yeah, until there is a final decision, I don't think so. In my understanding the judge just ruled, it was too much, and not that he'll have to return all shares. (There might be an new deal or whatever) Therfore Forbes can't really price it in and he hasn't returned them yet, he still holds them. I don't believe we'll get a final decision in 2024.

@Lion He won't have to return shares in any case, because the deal was about additional shares, not the shares Elon currently has.

@Berg According to CNBC he has received shares of this package.

"Chancery Court Chancellor Kathaleen McCormick told the parties in the lawsuit to confer on what would be a final order directing Musk to return the compensation he has received under the plan."

The February question:

The question for January:

I'm confused. Forbes is showing the Arnault family as #1 with $184 billion, and Elon as #2 with $204 billion:

https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#1fdee17f3d78

Is there something I'm missing?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 It looks like this in my browser, but given the current high volatility in Tesla stock, there could be some shenanigans going on.

@Lion Thanks, yeah, seems like it updated now.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Mine shows Arnault up 20B today and in first