I created a poll for who Manifold users would want as the VP: https://manifold.markets/ZaneMiller/who-would-manifold-want-as-trumps-v

Burgum = super boring white guy, not unlike Pence. Zero voters moved.

Rubio = charismatic first Latino veep, locks up Arizona and Nevada, and attracts all of the same voters as Burgum

Rubio is the opposite of America First foreign policy. Not enough to turn away Trump’s base, but might sway the Bush/Haley-loving military industrial complex (which doesn’t bring swing voters, only DC influence and cash)

@CharlieBauer Maybe "America First" doesn't mean what you think it means. Maybe you're confused about your preference for entertainment over a solution to the country's immigration problem. Either way, Rubio is the highest ranking American on that list, as the Senior Senator from Florida and the Vice Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee. He also has more political experience than anyone else on that list and he can be tasked to handle comprehensive immigration reform while Trump spends his days and nights entertaining the rubes with his antics.

“America First” foreign policy isn’t about immigration. Immigration is Rubio’s original claim to fame (and strength) but as you said he is now on Intel. “America First” is about stopping foreign aid, the liberal international order, NATO expansion, NGOs, NSA spying, and the next war. Rubio unequivocally supports the Ukraine war, free money to Israel, and CIA attempting to overthrow foreign governments like Iran.

“America First” is like Tucker Carlson or Rand Paul. Only around ~40% of Republican Congressmen.

Our immigration "problem" should remind us that there's nothing worse for domestic stability than international instability. A level hand and a consideration of all the variables seems useful. This extends to NATO, Ukraine, Israel and US foreign intelligence agencies. Nobody wants to take "American First" so far that we revert to seasonally restricted produce options in the supermarket or worse.

America First ideology doesn’t want seasonally restricted produce, but opposing NATO, Ukraine, and intel agencies is a core part of the ideology. Republicans like Bush, Lindsey Graham, Rubio, esc are neoconservative instead of America First - most people don’t think that’s a bad thing. But some of Trump’s base does.

Seasonally restricted produce is what happens when the rest of the world goes to war and we pretend that its not our problem or when we start lobbing trade restrictions against every other country pretending we don't need them because we're a superpower. Seasonally restricted produce is the reason Tucker spent his time in that Russian grocery store in the bread aisle instead of the produce aisle.

Rubio was first elected to the Senate as a Tea Party candidate. He's never been a neoconservative. Understanding the value of a strong military and strong intel agencies doesn't mean he's looking to start wars that get Americans killed over oil pipelines in Afghanistan because oil execs couldn't convince the Taliban of its "value" 30 years ago.

Should be someone who could reassure swing voters that there's someone sane on the ticket, which burgum is the most likely of these to do (mostly because he didn't make big waves as a presidential candidate, so he's still just a random successful small state governor).

Whoever he picks needs to help him carry an issue and a demographic. I only see one candidate there that helps him carry both. Most of these names don't get him any new votes.

I’m really surprised I’m the first to choose Ben Carson. He is the most loyal, religious, and able to pick up black voters that have dropped Biden

While this isn't wrong, Carson is quite old and has some unusual/strong views on a few points. I think Tim Scott or Byron Donalds would serve the same function for black voters while also appealing to younger voters, which might be quite important for the election.

Age is a good point but no one knows Tim Scott or Byron Donalds by name (and Donalds is more extreme than Carson). They aren’t famous or bold enough for the news to talk about them often.

ah shit I got confused and answered the one who I most wanted as VP, not the one who I thought would be best for Trump

Best possible results from whose perspective?

Trump's perspective lol, not to not get reelected. Otherwise it'd probably be Putin...

It's not going to be any of these. Sanders by far the best of these tho

who is it going to be?

send me one million manas and I'll tell you

What are you willing to pay out of you're wrong?

Just take a look at his positions in the VP market and you'll get the answer 🤫 . We discussed this a few months ago on Discord...

There's a new answer, not reflected in my positions. I will offer a 100,000 mana refund in the unlikely event Trump changes his mind between now and his announcement.

No thanks

Would be cool if you'd have a few seconds to answer this poll 🧡