This question will be resolved based on the percentage difference between first and second place at the 2024 Michigan presidential primary. This question specifically pertains to the primary occurring on February 27th, which only allocates 16 delegates, not the caucus scheduled for March 3rd, which allocates 39 delegates.

As a brief explanation, the primary is the statewide poll open to every citizen. The caucus is held during a state party convention and only party members are eligible to vote. (The entire situation is a special case this year due to some issues with the primary date. I'll link some more information here, here, and here, which probably explain the whole situation more accurate than I do.)

I'll use at least two different sources. I'll most likely use AP News, WSJ and NYT. This question will resolve whenever it becomes impossible for new results to change the outcome of this question. For example, if 98% of the votes are reported and the winning margin is 62.5%, it will resolve because the last 2% can't change the outcome of this question. I won't resolve early, even if it's unlikely. I might extend the closing time.

In the unlikely case that the winning margin lands exactly on x5.00% or x0.00%, this question will be resolved 50:50.

You can view current polls here.

If you have any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question.