What will the winning margin at the 2024 Michigan Republican primary be? (NOT CAUCUS)
Basic
26
15k
resolved Feb 28
100%99.5%
<55.00%
0.1%
55.00% - 60.00%
0.0%
60.00% - 65.00%
0.3%
>65.00%

This question will be resolved based on the percentage difference between first and second place at the 2024 Michigan presidential primary. This question specifically pertains to the primary occurring on February 27th, which only allocates 16 delegates, not the caucus scheduled for March 3rd, which allocates 39 delegates.

As a brief explanation, the primary is the statewide poll open to every citizen. The caucus is held during a state party convention and only party members are eligible to vote. (The entire situation is a special case this year due to some issues with the primary date. I'll link some more information here, here, and here, which probably explain the whole situation more accurate than I do.)

I'll use at least two different sources. I'll most likely use AP News, WSJ and NYT. This question will resolve whenever it becomes impossible for new results to change the outcome of this question. For example, if 98% of the votes are reported and the winning margin is 62.5%, it will resolve because the last 2% can't change the outcome of this question. I won't resolve early, even if it's unlikely. I might extend the closing time.

In the unlikely case that the winning margin lands exactly on x5.00% or x0.00%, this question will be resolved 50:50.

You can view current polls here.

If you have any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question.

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@traders Both AP News (https://apnews.com/hub/ap-michigan-election-2024-results) and NYT (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/02/27/us/elections/results-michigan-republican-presidential-primary.html) show a difference of 41.7% with 96%/93% of the votes reported. As a result, the remaining votes won't be able to change the outcome of the question, which is <55%. I apologize for the few and off answers, that was the wrong approach to cost-saving during creation.

Thank you to everyone for participating ❤

For the upcoming Michigan caucus, I've created the following question and for Super Tuesday, I've prepared the linked one. However, I'll make sure to add a few more questions for Super Tuesday.

bought Ṁ300 <55.00% YES

Did you mean to close this early?

@MarkHamill no, sorry, it's reopened

Great work setting this up! Gave it a boost and I'll have it in the Michigan Dashboard

@ManifoldPolitics Thank you, Joshua ❤

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