This question will be resolved based on the percentage difference between first and second place at the 2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary. I'll use at least two different sources. I'll most likely use AP News, WSJ and NYT. This question will resolve whenever it becomes impossible for new results to change the outcome of this question. For example, if 98% of the votes are reported and the winning margin is 17.5%, it will resolve because the last 2% can't change the outcome of this question. I won't resolve early, even if it's unlikely.

In the unlikely case that the winning margin lands exactly on x5.00% or x0.00%, this question will be resolved 50:50.

You can view current polls here.

If you have any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I won't bet on this market.

In case you want to forecast: