What will the winning margin at the 2024 South Carolina Republican primary be? (resolves on results)
Basic
34
Ṁ50k
resolved Feb 25
100%97%
20.00% - 25.00%
0.0%
<10.00%
0.0%
10.00% - 15.00%
0.3%
15.00% - 20.00%
0.4%
25.00% - 30.00%
0.1%
30.00% - 35.00%
0.0%
35.00% - 40.00%
0.5%
40.00% - 45.00%
0.5%
45.00% - 50.00%
0.7%
>50.00%

This question will be resolved based on the percentage difference between first and second place at the 2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary. I'll use at least two different sources. I'll most likely use AP News, WSJ and NYT. This question will resolve whenever it becomes impossible for new results to change the outcome of this question. For example, if 98% of the votes are reported and the winning margin is 17.5%, it will resolve because the last 2% can't change the outcome of this question. I won't resolve early, even if it's unlikely.

In the unlikely case that the winning margin lands exactly on x5.00% or x0.00%, this question will be resolved 50:50.

You can view current polls here.

If you have any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I won't bet on this market.

In case you want to forecast:


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@traders Finally, more than 99.85% or 755,800 of the 756,922 ballots are counted and reported, according to the official state website, corroborated by the WSJ and NYT. This implies that the outcome of this primary is close to 20.27% and within 20.00-25.00%, as uncounted ballots are insufficient to alter the result of this market. Therefore, the question resolves to 20.00-25.00%.

https://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/119816/web.317647/#/detail/100

https://www.wsj.com/election/2024/primary/state/south-carolina

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/02/24/us/elections/results-south-carolina-republican-primary.html

Update: This question appears to be taking longer to resolve than I had anticipated. Based on the currently available information, I am not able to resolve this market according to the description. If you have better information than I listed down below, I would love to hear from you.

Current Results: I primarily rely on the WSJ for updates as they have proven to be reliable and accurate, providing results to two decimal places, and they continue to update their information days after the primaries conclude. I have cross-checked information from about 10 different news sources.

As of now, Trump has a winning margin of 20.27%, with over 99% of the votes reported. However, the last percentage point could potentially bring it under 20%. Therefore, I am awaiting the publication of the Voter Turnout by the State Secretary of South Carolina (an example for NH is linked here) to perform the necessary calculations. This will help me either resolve the market or wait for additional information. Unfortunately, I am currently unable to access some information, including the sos.sc.gov website, due to geoblocking and the unavailability of a VPN. If you can check (regularly) or provide me with information, it would help speed up the resolution process.

Other markets: According to Polymarket, which I expect to be accurate given this is a real money market and assuming that some users have done the calculations, there is a chance between 96.8% and 98.9% of this market resolving in the 20%-30% range.

I'm sorry that the resolution takes that long. If you've any questions, please fell free to ask.

I think the Richland vote outstanding is all mail, which favors Haley. The 5:1 Election Day:Early Vote ratio is uncharacteristic of the more educated demographic (the county voted Biden in 2020). It should be closer to 2:1 or 3:1 like Greenville or Charleston. https://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/119816/web.317647/#/detail/100?county=Richland

bought Ṁ25 15.00% - 20.00% YES

It comes down to Greenville most likely.

These always turn into nail biters. Welp!

bought Ṁ25 15.00% - 20.00% NO

The outstanding vote seems very pro-Haley, but we'll see if it's enough to get it under 20.

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