What topics or who will Elon Musk tweet about on X before May 1st?
208
29kṀ110k
resolved May 2
Resolved
NO
Taylor Swift
Resolved
YES
Joe Biden
Resolved
YES
LGBT
Resolved
YES
Tucker Carlson
Resolved
NO
Manifold
Resolved
YES
Migration
Resolved
NO
Sam Altman
Resolved
NO
Jimmy Carter
Resolved
YES
Donald Trump
Resolved
YES
Roman Empire
Resolved
YES
Abortion
Resolved
NO
Lex Fridman
Resolved
NO
Soup
Resolved
YES
TikTok
Resolved
NO
Bill Gates
Resolved
NO
Any primary or caucus
Resolved
YES
Benjamin Netanyahu
Resolved
NO
Migrant-borne disease
Resolved
YES
Reddit
Resolved
YES
Javier Milei or Argentina

Whatever Musk tweets or reposts, including reposts (the content directly visible in the repost and videos without opening a thread) after market creation, counts. Whatever is visible under "Posts" on his page, even if deleted later, also counts. Replies, etc., do not count.

  • I reserve the right to mark any answer as N/A for any reason, especially low value answers (i.e. "Tesla" or "United States") according to my judgement. Please ask beforehand. [payments for submissions won't be returned]

  • Maximum of 10 submissions/user

Resolution criteria

  • I'll be fairly relaxed, but it should be clear and obvious. I.e. if he tweets "the president does[...]," Joe Biden would resolve to yes. However, "Obamacare" won't resolve "Obama." "Transgender" isn't enough to resolve "LGBT," but "LGBTQIA+" and "transgender, [...] homosexuals and bisexuals" would resolve "LGBT." If you need more examples, please feel free to ask.

  • I'll use my own judgment and might seek input from mods in unclear cases or decide to N/A.

  • I won't bet in this market. [expect M$1 to push certain answers in the ranking]

  • The question closes on May 1st at 0:00 PST. Any submissions without proof by May 2nd at 0:00 PST will be resolved as NO.

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