Manifold's Fantasy President: Will Michelle Obama win against Nikki Haley? [Super Tuesday Special]
resolved Mar 6

I'll run a poll with the following question/description on Super Tuesday. The resolution of this question is determined by the outcome. The option 'Burn the ballot' will be disregarded.

If Michelle Obama receives more votes, the resolution will be Yes. If Nikki Haley garners more votes, the resolution will be NO. In the event of an exact 50:50 split, the question will resolve as 50:50.

This question will close prior to the start of the poll.

Question: Who would you choose in the 2024 president election in a matchup between Michelle Obama and Nikki Haley? [Manifold's Fantasy President]


  • Michelle Obama

  • Nikki Haley

  • Burn the ballot

Close your eyes and imagine... okay, scratch that, closing your eyes doesn't work. You live in a parallel timeline and world where every Manifold user has the possibility to vote for the next POTUS on Super Tuesday via this poll. No matter where you live or what your citizenship is. Donald Trump and Joe Biden have officially retired and spend their lives golfing together as friends. Both have endorsed Michelle Obama and Nikki Haley as nominees, and these two have become the official candidates.

You receive this ballot and can choose between Michelle Obama, Nikki Haley or burn the ballot. In the last case, your phone goes up in flames, rendering you ineligible to vote, and your choice will be disregarded.

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Resolves yes!

Thanks to everyone for participating ❤

@traders The poll is live and you can vote here:

Here are a lot of fun questions surrounding Super Tuesday, including one about whether five users will burn their phone in this poll.

I should start a Nikki Haley PAC on Manifold, the results is too based. How can we ever do serious forecasting?