This question resolves as YES if the percentage difference between Harris and Trump increases 7 days after RFK Jr. drops out compared to the day RFK Jr. drops out. It also resolves YES if Harris loses her lead beforehand, but the difference becomes smaller within that week (e.g., Trump +1.0% on the drop-out date -> Trump +0.5% one week after the drop-out). If Harris loses her lead, I will rephrase the question.
This question resolves as NO if the percentage difference remains the same or if Trump gains more percent relative to Harris.
This question resolves as N/A if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. does not drop out and and continues spreading his conspiracy theories or if Trump or Harris drop out before RFK.
The official date of RFK Jr.'s drop-out will be used (not based on rumors, etc.). I will close this question two days after RFK officially drops out. In the event of his death, that date will be used instead.
Reference is RCP and I'll use the displayed average rounded on 0.1%.
[edit: Reference really is the linked two-way polling between Harris and Trump and NOT the 5-way/any other polling]
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Reference is Harris +1.5% on August 23rd
Question resolves YES if Harris (August 30th) > +1.5%
Question resolves NO if Harris (August 30th) <= +1.5% or Trump is in the lead on August 30st
@traders This question is no longer conditional.
Reminder: This market will close on August 25th at 3:35 PM ET and likely resolve on August 31st September 2nd. I’ll post and pin the relevant reference for the change from today’s data once RCP publishes it (probably tomorrow).
@traders This question is no longer conditional.
Reminder: This market will close on August 25th at 3:35 PM ET and likely resolve on August 31st September 2nd. I’ll post and pin the relevant reference for the change from today’s data once RCP publishes it (probably tomorrow).
Extended the closing time by one more day, as RCP hasn't published the data for August 23rd yet. The resolving date will likely be later then announced.
I created the same question for two weeks (and 4 days before market closure), since there has been some criticism that one week is too short.
@creator, you linked to the two-way Trump vs. Harris, just want to confirm you're using that rather than the 5-way at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-west.