>30% chance there will be someone born before year ____ who lives for at least 300 years (vote smallest such number)
50
Never closes
1960
2000
2040
Some number greater than 2040
No such number
Only biological humans count for the purposes of this poll. If someone is preserved through cryonics, only the time spent alive counts toward 300 years.
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Oldest person to ever live was Jeanne Louise Calment, who lived to be 122. Using that as an upper bound for current longevity, someone born in 1960 with current medical technology could live until the year 2082.
Metaculus estimates a 75% chance of AGI by 2048.
It's not clear AGI is sufficient to solve aging within the 34 years, but I'd certainly put >40% chance it does. Therefore I also put >30% chance someone born in 1960 could live to 300.
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