IF RFK is HHS Secretary and H5N1 transmits human-to-human in the US, will he try to curtail vaccine production? | Manifold

IF RFK is HHS Secretary and H5N1 transmits human-to-human in the US, will he try to curtail vaccine production?

Basic

3

Ṁ75

2026

37%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Conditional on RFK becoming HHS Secretary AND human-to-human bird flu transmission in the US in 2025, will he openly take any actions in 2025 intended to hinder bird flu vaccines from being produced or distributed?

Counts:

He introduces unnecessary restrictions on who can get vaccines
He makes budget cuts targeted at the US's strategic vaccine stockpiles or at vaccine development in a way that affects bird flu vaccines
He applies political pressure to the FDA
He restricts vaccines in general and bird flu vaccines are affected

Doesn't count:

He tries to defund or de-staff DHHS or the CDC across the board
He speaks negatively about the vaccines but doesn't do anything concrete to stop them from becoming available
He's alleged to have done something to hinder vaccine availability, but it hasn't been confirmed by the resolution date
He takes action against vaccines in general, but there doesn't end up being excess demand for the bird flu vaccine (because eg the outbreak is contained some other way)

N/A if either precondition isn't met.

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