Will there be >=83,500 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by the end of 2022?
63
1.3kṀ19k
resolved Dec 30
Resolved
YES

This question resolves to YES if there are >=83,500 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by year-end, using the cumulative confirmed cases of December 31, 2022, from Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ1,234
2Ṁ229
3Ṁ96
4Ṁ96
5Ṁ82


Sort by:
predictedYES 2y

@Lifejacker When will the data be accessed to resolve the question? The data are updated over time.

predictedYES 2y

@belikewater The market will resolve YES once there are >=83,500 confirmed cases of monkeypox based on https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox. The market will resolve NO after closing once there is a December 31st data point.

predictedYES 2y

@Lifejacker Thanks for your reply. I understand your response to mean that the Dec 31 data point will be accessed within 24 hours of its availability, not on any later date after updates. (The value of the Dec 31 data point will change over time and will be different, say, on Jan 7.)

predictedYES 2y

@belikewater Yes, as soon as they post a value for Dec 31st.

2y

Solid monkey.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy