Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, during his tenure as Prime Minister, Mark Carney enacts legislation or issues an order-in-council that reverses the firearm prohibitions implemented under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Specifically, this includes the reversal of bans on "assault-style" firearms introduced in May 2020 and the national freeze on handgun sales enacted in October 2022. The market will resolve to "No" if no such reversal occurs before 2026.

Background:

In May 2020, following the Nova Scotia attacks, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced an immediate ban on approximately 1,500 models of "assault-style" firearms, including the AR-15 and Ruger Mini-14. This ban was enacted via an order-in-council and included a two-year amnesty period for current owners.

In October 2022, the Trudeau government implemented a national freeze on the sale, purchase, and transfer of handguns, which was later codified into law through Bill C-21.

As of May 2025, Mark Carney serves as the Prime Minister of Canada, having succeeded Justin Trudeau.

Considerations:

Reversing firearm prohibitions is a complex process that involves legislative action and may face significant political and public opposition. Additionally, any reversal would need to address the logistics of reclassifying firearms and potentially compensating individuals affected by previous bans.