Will "OthelloGPT learned a bag of heuristics" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Plus
1
Ṁ502026
13%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post OthelloGPT learned a bag of heuristics is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will "Steering GPT-2-XL by adding an activation vector" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
52% chance
Will "GPTs are Predictors, not Imitators" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
60% chance
Will "Things I Learned by Spending Five Thousand Ho..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
71% chance
Will "Things I Learned by Spending Five Thousand Ho..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
70% chance
Will "Overview of strong human intelligence amplifi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
45% chance
Will "And All the Shoggoths Merely Players" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
38% chance
Will "AI #4: Introducing GPT-4" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "LeCun’s “A Path Towards Autonomous Machine In..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
18% chance
Will "GPT-175bee" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "ChatGPT (and now GPT4) is very easily distrac..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
11% chance