Will "ChatGPT can learn indirect control" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
13
Ṁ1kṀ643Feb 1
12%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post ChatGPT can learn indirect control is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will "So You Think You've Awoken ChatGPT" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
24% chance
Will "On "ChatGPT Psychosis" and LLM Sycophancy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
17% chance
Will "What We Learned Trying to Diff Base and Chat ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "You can't eval GPT5 anymore" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
6% chance
Will "METR's Evaluation of GPT-5" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
15% chance
Will "Show, not tell: GPT-4o is more opinionated in..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "How training-gamers might function (and win)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "The Case Against AI Control Research" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
69% chance
Will "How I talk to those above me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
16% chance
Will "How AI Is Learning to Think in Secret" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
21% chance