Will "Nobody’s on the ball on AGI alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
Will "Nobody’s on the ball on AGI alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
1
1kṀ10
resolved Feb 11
Resolved
NO

As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.

This market will resolve to 100% if the post Nobody’s on the ball on AGI alignment is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.

LessWrong Annual Review
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules