MANIFOLD
Will "“Alignment Faking” frame is somewhat fake" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ105
resolved Feb 20
Resolved
YES

As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.

This market will resolve to 100% if the post “Alignment Faking” frame is somewhat fake is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.

Market context
LessWrong Annual Review
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ63
2Ṁ25
3Ṁ8

People are also trading

Will "Alignment Faking Revisited: Improved Classifi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "6 reasons why “alignment-is-hard” discourse s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
20% chance
Will "What Is The Alignment Problem?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
16% chance
Will "Self-fulfilling misalignment data might be po..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
15% chance
Will "Alignment remains a hard, unsolved problem" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
25% chance
Will "Alignment will happen by default. What’s next?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
7% chance
Will "Natural emergent misalignment from reward hac..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
17% chance
Will "Why Do Some Language Models Fake Alignment Wh..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
16% chance
Will "Emergent Misalignment: Narrow finetuning can ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
24% chance
Will "Narrow Misalignment is Hard, Emergent Misalig..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy