Will this video be over 1M views by Monday October 6, 12AM Eastern?
63
1kṀ72k
resolved Oct 6
Resolved
NO

Here’s a link to the video:

https://dub.sh/fdWz73t

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opened a Ṁ5,000 NO at 2% order

Some suspicious trading going on here @LeoGuinanEqPl, in case that was you, creating multiple accounts for sign-up bonuses is against the rules here

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

@Simon74fe it's not. It's a friend that I'm introducing to the platform. I'm trying to get Manifold to sponsor me so I'm recruiting people to show them I can.

opened a Ṁ1 YES at 1.0% order

@LeoGuinanEqPl In that case, your friends shouldn't spend the entire referral mana on one market.

@LeoGuinanEqPl Here's my buddy's channel. He made a highlight video for me, so that was pretty awesome. He's helping me learn how to really create videos. I've got info and proof, but no video chops. https://youtu.be/RWHm0mtB0XA?si=Qhkg7ATiV_0tAY_1

@Lobow Don't waste your Manifold birthright or feel unduly pressured. This is a great website and it's better to make trades sustainably.

@Chumchulum he believed in me before I believed in myself. I wanted to make sure he got it on my record here. He might not stick around but I wanted the proof he was here at the beginning. He’s had issues with sports betting so I’m not going to pressure him to hang out here.

@LeoGuinanEqPl That's more understandable. You should lock him out of his account if he feels tempted, I'm sure he'll agree.

@Chumchulum that’s not a worry. Our other best friend is a coach for recovering addicts. And he has no trouble hanging out with us at the bar when we get together. The power of friendship makes a lot of things really easy. That’s something I’m going to be showcasing on my channel. I love that the people here actually care.

bought Ṁ110 YES

I'm betting on humans over machines. I'll lose if I have to, but I won't forever. Eventually, I'll show humans how to win. https://blog.ideanexusventures.com/announcing-the-first-idea-nexus-ventures-product-the-anti-meme/

most delusional market of 2025 nominee.

@KevinBlaw I happily accept the nomination!

@LeoGuinanEqPl good prepare a speech. This seems like a lock to me but it’s up to the manifold foreign press.

@KevinBlaw I’ll deliver it on my channel. 🫡

@LeoGuinanEqPl cue “crickets” sound effect

@KevinBlaw we can bet on the reach when I have it calibrated

@KevinBlaw Now you can bet on my acceptance speech view count! Other one is at 376 right now for a quick reference. Never been happier to be nominated.

https://manifold.markets/LeoGuinanEqPl/how-many-views-will-my-nomination-a?r=TGVvR3VpbmFuRXFQbA

bought Ṁ15 YES

Wondering if someone’s gonna buy yes, bot a million views on the video, and get the payout?

I’d wager there’s more than a 2% chance someone would

@SkyVelleity I think that's against YouTube's TOS and Manifold's rules:
"Users who take advantage of Manifold bugs, break laws, or break other website’s TOS may face punishment depending on the context.
For example, botting someone’s socials to cause a market to resolve will be harshly punished."

@4fa I would want them punished. I want people to pay attention to me on my channel. If I wanted bots I would build them.

@SkyVelleity It would be cheaper to directly buy mana from Manifold. We're talking about a million views, not a hundred...

@4fa interesting, but in this case, some may not be betting on the view count, then manipulating, they’d be betting on the chance someone else bots the views. There’s some pretty heavy “yes” votes here

I'm gonna leave the market now because I'm launching this channel so I can spend my time hanging out with my kids. So I'm going to do that. But if you want to help me launch, here's my pre-seed round. VCs wouldn't listen to why their model was broken so I'm skipping them. It's an NFT that isn't an NFT. I'm happy to let you sell it if you need to. And it will be valuable when people listen to me. But it won't be overnight. That's not how value works. So my gains are capped at a reasonable amount. I plan on showing Silicon Valley how bad they are at AI. And math. https://buildinpublic-s663.metalabel.com/bottega_1010?variantId=1

@LeoGuinanEqPl Why are you in debt and not a millionaire if "But let's be honest: → 47 navigators already running businesses → $18.7M in combined revenue"?

@Lilemont some of it is slop because I’ve been rushing to get things working but then a coach I’ve worked with before said something that made me realize I was an idiot and things could be way easier. I’ve just been behind for so long I don’t know how to play from ahead. I need help and the people I asked didn’t. So I’m taking everything public. We can work through it together.

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