I want a chance to see if people actually trust me. Social media breaks the social contract and it makes it hard to tell. So I’ll bet on no and let the market decide.
Ok, so now that I see how this place works, I realize that I have a perfect marketing opportunity.
Here's the deal: I suck at business. Like, you have no idea how bad.
5 years ago, I had a vision of how we could create a new internet. And since then, I've basically bungled my way through life. Got easier for a bit in the middle when I got a job at a startup, but then I got fired for trying to accomplish their mission rather than what they wanted me to do: build enterprise SaaS.
For a longer version, I summarized it up through June here:
https://hitchhikertothefuture.substack.com/p/welcome-to-day-1-of-the-future
I wrote this reflection this morning. And then my first thought had to be that I should enter it in an essay contest for $10K. Which will be paid who knows when.https://engineeringgenerosity.substack.com/p/what-does-it-take-to-build-trust
This is after a week on this market. But for once in my life, I feel like I can get a fair shake. I've done some pretty cool things, but my main focus is on the idea of time violence. And I'm a victim of it, because I'm stuck fighting the same problems over and over. The rate of change has become untenable, and I've been trying to warn people about what I've seen.
@KevinBlaw can tell you that I suck at videos right now. And I know that, and I'm happy to be bad at things. But what I'm really fucking good at is ideas. Because they are backed by five years of dedicated research on accelerating timelines.
I've got a paper on how to create a conscious economy and I plan on creating some videos that help explain them. I've even got a team helping me now. Here's what I put together as a theory of Time Violence, where people are leveraging systems that make their time more valuable than others. I've been spending five years trying to fight systems that refuse to listen. I thought I'd be able to publish it tonight, but I'm worn out by the fair and I can't get the equations to show up right. So here's the blog version that I was able to create based on the help I got from Jim and the AI systems at OSV:
https://www.buildinpublicuniversity.com/the-universal-application-of-time-violence-an-inductive-proof/
I'm not a marketer, I'm not a creator (although I'm learning to be), I'm a researcher. But I've got some cool shit coming, if I can get the funding. I can't get through to VCs, I have no idea how people find angel investors, and I suck at sales and marketing.
So here's what I'm going to offer:
I realized there's a basic formula to getting market validation of your ideas.
1. An explanation of the idea
Why is the idea valuable?
A discussion with a currently validated expert in the field
Something the community can use to test their own understanding of your work.
Time Violence is valuable because it gives us a way to arbitrage the complexities that we are being dealt. I have a ton of really cool ways that I'm exploring for how to do these, and they are based around how to center communities around the idea of the workshop, the bottega. It's where people learn to master the things they love. And when people love something, they end up becoming coaches. Coaches can't find clients right now because they have to figure out how to find them. It's exhausting.
Technology has fucked up our view of the world, and it has trapped me behind a screen for five years. I'm going to hope that this market will decide that I'm worth giving a shot. Because if not, I think I'm going to have to simply leave the internet. It's too dangerous to me. It makes me believe in outcomes that I can't have, no matter how much work I produce.
So here's my body of work as it stands:
A vision statement of the trust engine: https://hitchhikertothefuture.substack.com/p/the-trust-engine-vision-statement
Here's the repo that went with it: https://github.com/Build-In-Public-University/trust_harmonics
That was good enough to get me a call with a Silicon Valley startup that told me I should sound insane to the people around me, and thought I could work for them, because I had recreated more of their research singlehandedly than anyone they had seen. They didn't realize I had blown past them. I asked them to pay me $15K to take the month off. They canceled the followup meeting.
Sorry, not all of us have a month to wait around. So instead, I got a $10K grant from the Open Research Institute for my work. But that ran out early because I blew 25% of it on AWS like a stupid engineer who built before thinking.
Here's my initial plan to monetize:
You can support me with a Bet on Humanity, because that's what i'm betting on. Silicon Valley doesn't know what is about to hit them. Available for as little as $1.
Or you can make a bet on yourself. $10K + 10% of the sponsorships I get you. I'll figure out the rest for you. We're setting up a production company and I know some coaches I'll be able to bring in. You can cash in your bet when you decide that I've done a good enough job on myself to be worth it.
https://blog.ideanexusventures.com/products-and-services/
And if you make a bet on humanity, you can cash that in in the future for a shoutout for whatever you want. Doesn't matter how big I am. And I'll honor it, because I'm on the record. I won't endorse it, but I'll give you your shot to say it.Everyone deserves that.
And in return, I'll just feed a marketing budget into the no here, in exchange for the validation work being done. And if you think I'm actually sane and not tilting at windmills for 5 years, you'll realize there's probably some alpha in something that tech isn't interested in hearing about how maybe they aren't really that valuable.If this doesn't work, my backup plan is to start trying to run my town's social media accounts as a bot farm to test how much I can fuck with the algorithms. And basically let the town work as a coherent unit on social media that ensures information travels in orderly ways that benefit the community. I offered to run my favorite coffee shop's social media accounts to see if I can start playing with this stuff locally. So we'll see. That might make for some fun prediction markets.


Then, when I tried to message the mods, they told me it sounded like an app. And I said yeah, it will probably be an app. Then they banned me.So I will simply drop ideas here. If you bet No, please tell me what signals show you I shouldn't be trusted. At this point, it's data. And I'm happy to share more, because I've probably written about it somewhere. I've been quite prolific.
So let's have some fun together, because I think my wife is about to kill me if I don't get any of this magical internet money soon. Because it's available to everyone except the people who are playing the game right.
And if I do my job right, I'll make all of you rich.
Because I view myself as the People's Quant. One of the projects I started thinking about today was how 4H livestock auctions at county fairs could be used to understand the health of local economies, so I've got some digging into that to do. But I'd really like a chance to breathe. And the humans here seem cool.
Update 2025-10-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that this market will not resolve on the scheduled close date (2025-12-31). Instead, the market will remain open and resolve at a later time determined by the creator, based on when "it makes sense to close it and pay it out." The creator is open to suggestions on when/how to resolve.

Just submitted the paper. Figured out the latex this morning.
Want to check out the paper? It's on my github: https://github.com/leo-guinan/PhD/blob/main/papers/Time%20Violence/latex/main.pdf
@StepanBakhmarin Would love to hear more about that. I checked out his profile and see some similarities, but I'm curious for your more detailed thoughts if you care to share them.
@LeoGuinanEqPl I don't have many detailed thoughts, just thought that your behavior on the site looked similar. I used to see a lot of Krantz activity, and now it looks like you overtook the niche.
@KevinBlaw do NOT trust me to perform surgery. If I ever ask, under no circumstances allow me to. Seriously a bad idea…
@4fa it’s a way for people to signal me. Assuming I have audience growth that makes it impossible for me to talk to everyone individually, this gives me a market that can get my attention. The more I grow, the more it should require collective action to move. It’s an experiment
@4fa Actually, I'll let it roll this new way until it makes sense to close it and pay it out. Open to suggestions.


