Will Israel invade Rafah in February 2024?
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resolved Feb 29
Resolved
NO

Resolved as yes if the IDF spokesman declares the IDF has entered the city of Rafah in Gaza.

Surgical raids of limited scope will not count. Only large scale clearing operation.

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IDF spokesman did not publish any claim about Rafah entry, no publication in trusted media. Resolved as no.

bought Ṁ10 NO

I'm guessing the 'free hostages before Ramadan' ultimatum means we won't see a full scale clearing of the city until next month.

boughtṀ250NO

@GazDownright what are your thoughts?

@RanaG I'm having a wager

@RanaG As the US signaled it doesn't want an invasion of the Rafah refugee camp, I deduced that they have already expressed this wish through diplomatic back channels. I bet on Israel obeying its primary benefactor.

Wait after Ramadan

bought Ṁ20 NO

@KarenShalev Please vote “no” then..

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