Resolution criteria

1. Definition of Event: The market will resolve to the date when a Dutch national tax law officially comes into force that taxes capital gains in Box 3 (savings and investments) on a realized basis rather than on a deemed/fictional basis or an unrealized/accrual basis.

2. Applicability: To qualify, the tax on realized returns must apply to liquid financial assets.

3. Official Source: The resolution date will be determined by the official date of entry into force of the relevant legislation.

4. Example: If the law comes into force in 1 January 2030, “before 2030” will be resolved as NO, “before 2032” as YES.

Background

In Box 3, the Netherlands historically taxed wealth based on "deemed" (fictional) returns rather than actual performance. Following a series of Dutch Supreme Court rulings declaring this unconstitutional, the government drafted the "Wet werkelijk rendement box 3" (Bill 36.748), which passed the House of Representatives in February 2026. This bill proposed a "vermogensaanwasbelasting" (capital growth tax), which would tax annual unrealized "paper" gains on liquid assets (stocks, bonds, crypto) starting in 2028.

However, due to intense political opposition in the Senate and concerns over liquidity, the Dutch coalition government agreed in late August 2026 to "park" the bill. The cabinet has instead shifted its focus to designing a system based on actual realized capital gains (vermogenswinstbelasting), where investors are only taxed when they sell or realize their profits. The exact timeline and structure for this new system remain subject to parliamentary approval and implementation negotiations.