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MANIFOLD
What will the typical long-term capital gains tax be in 2040 (US)?
2
Ṁ200Ṁ235
2040
28.3 %
expected
16%
0 - 9.99%
20%
10 - 19.99%
20%
20 - 29.99%
20%
30 - 39.99%
13%
40 - 49.99%
9%
50 - 59.99%
3%
60%+

Inspired by https://x.com/lessin/status/1994546364559364330.

  • Update 2025-11-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on the median long-term capital gains tax payer's tax bracket (currently 15% as of 2025), not the highest bracket or any other rate.

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There's some ambiguity here. If you are single and make less than $47025, your long-term capital gains tax rate for 2025 is 0%. Do you mean something like "the highest long-term capital gains tax rate bracket"?

@diracdeltafunk Good point, let's do the median long-term capital gains tax payer's tax bracket, currently that would be 15%.

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