Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the United States military conducts any offensive kinetic military strike—including airstrikes, drone strikes, naval bombardments, or missile strikes—targeting locations within the sovereign territory or territorial waters of Oman on or before September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

• Source of Truth: Official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), the Omani government, or credible international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC).

• Inclusions: Any acknowledged kinetic strikes on Omani soil or maritime territory by U.S. forces, including accidental strikes or unauthorized actions subsequently confirmed by official military sources.

• Exclusions: Defensive military actions (such as U.S. forces intercepting missiles or drones over Omani airspace without striking targets on Omani territory) and cyber warfare do not qualify.

Background

On August 17, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump publicly threatened military action against Oman, stating the U.S. would "bomb" the country if it "gets in the way" of efforts to resolve the ongoing U.S.-Israel war with Iran. The statement followed announcements that Iran and Oman were finalizing an agreement to manage shipping routes and potential transit tolls through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

This marked the second such threat in 2026; in May, Trump warned the historically neutral Gulf state to "behave ... or else we'll have to blow them up." Oman has long served as a key diplomatic backchannel and security partner for the United States, hosting U.S. military facilities under a bilateral defense agreement.