Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing frontier model weights by the end of 2028?
Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing frontier model weights by the end of 2028?
9
170Ṁ932028
66%
chance
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Resolves YES if there is credible evidence that a state or non-state actor has succeeded in illicitly gaining access to the weights of a frontier model. The evidence doesn't have to be 100% conclusive, but e.g. a rumor wouldn't count.
Resolves NO if there is no credible evidence that anyone has succeeded at stealing frontier model weights by the end of 2028.
For the purposes of this question, a frontier model is a state-of-the-art foundation model.
Not sufficient to resolve YES::
If model weights are leaked by a disgruntled employee, but there is no reason to suspect coordinated action by any group.
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@RutgerDeMaeyer My hope is that "state-of-the-art" narrows it down enough. Though it's also true that foundation model is a pretty vague term. (I'd like it to include multimodal LLMs, but not random smaller pretrained models in from domains with much less competition)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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