Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030?

Question

This question seeks to predict the political and socio-economic stability of North Korea, specifically focusing on whether the country will experience a collapse of its current regime or governmental structure before the end of the year 2030. For this question, "collapse" is defined as a significant and observable breakdown in the current governing framework, which could manifest in several ways, including but not limited to:

Major Overhaul in Leadership: A complete change in the top leadership, not following the established line of succession, due to internal upheaval, coup, revolution, or other extraordinary political changes.

Severe Economic Breakdown: A catastrophic economic failure that leads to a breakdown of internal order, resulting in a humanitarian crisis or necessitating international intervention.

Large-scale Civil Unrest: Widespread civil disorder or an uprising that effectively disrupts the current governmental control and leads to a change in the regime.

External Intervention: An intervention by foreign powers that significantly alters or displaces the current governmental structure.

Criteria for Resolution:

The question will resolve as "Yes" if, before the end of December 31, 2025, there is verifiable and widely recognised evidence of a collapse as defined above. This could be through international media reports, official statements from global governments or international organisations, or any other reliable source of global news.

The question will resolve as "No" if North Korea maintains its current governmental structure and no significant collapse, as defined above, occurs by the end of the specified period.

Here is the same question with the year deadline of 2025:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Latte_Horse/will-north-korea-collapse-before-th)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 14% chance (32 traders, as of Jun 12, 2026).