Will GPT be used to help write one of Biden's speeches in his first term?
25
33
510
2025
13%
chance

This market resolves YES if the following conditions hold:

  • Someone writes a speech for Joe Biden (including Biden himself)

  • Biden gives said speech

  • It is revealed that said speech was written with the assistance of GPT, or any sufficiently similar technology

  • It doesn't matter to what degree GPT was used, it could even be just for a single sentence or phrase, so long as someone credibly confirms that it was used at all

This must happen (the writing of the speech, the giving of the speech, and the revelation of assistance) while Biden is still president, and during his first term of presidency.

In the event Biden is re-elected and this market has not resolved YES, I will post a duplicate market for his second term.

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@ManifoldMarkets Something's wrong with group autocompletion, "US Politics" and "AI" aren't showing up in autocomplete, and can't be applied, but they do show up when I search in Groups

@LarsDoucet you may have noticed a new note: “You can only add your market to groups you are a member of.”

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@LarsDoucet Those of us with the Trustworthy ish badge can add markets to any group not just those we create. That is one of the benefits as I understand it.

predicts NO

@LarsDoucet Nvm, I guess they took that away last night because it worked yesterday.

predicts NO

@LarsDoucet Looks like the move is to ask to be added as a moderator to any group you want to add markets to you didn’t start.

@BTE It looks like

  • your markets – you can add to any group you join

  • other people’s markets – you can add to the groups you moderate