Will Ethereum switch to Proof of Stake before 2023?
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Ṁ6573resolved Sep 15
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YES1D
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1M
ALL
This market will resolve to "Yes", if, by December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM CT, the Ethereum blockchain has effectively migrated to a Proof of Stake consensus algorithm
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Currently an arbitrage opportunity with my market here
https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-ethereum-merge-to-proofofstake-51ac90e8b836
Feel like I'm shouting into the void here, but for my own future reference, here's a timeline of how things could go for the merge to happen right around the new year.
* End of May, weekly shadow forks of mainnet
* End of June, shadow forks of mainnet with all major clients but one successfully merging
* End of July, shadow forks with all clients successfully merging
* End of August, merge on at least 1 of the four major testnets
* End of September, merge on at least 3/4 major testnets
* End of October, merge on all 4 major testnets
* End of November, mainnet merge date announced
* End of December, merge
If reality leads or lags this timeline, hopefully I'll base my decisions around that. It would be nice to make markets for all of these but unfortunately I don't have the M$.
@BoltonBailey You get one free market a day now, so you could post all those if you want now.
@LarsDoucet And indeed, I have been posting these! I just have some other markets I want to post as well.
Bit of a hedge with my other position that the merge won't happen before July. Not sure if I have any more concrete reasons than last time, just listening to all the core dev call it seems like they are trying to accelerate their testing process. They aren't even sure yet that they'll have to delay the difficulty bomb, it seems strange to think the merge could be so many months away.
https://youtu.be/NPlmXdnPTEo?t=556 ethereum developers have said they expect the merge around mid-2022, and while they admit it may come on the later side, I think a lot of them would have to be very wrong for it not to happen in 2022 at all.
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