This market resolves YES, if:
A member of the Forbes 30 under 30 lists is arrested and charged with fraud
This happens after the date this market was opened
The member had not previously been arrested and charged with fraud before
It is not yet 2025
EDIT: Wow, thanks Ryan Petersen!:
https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1644163008988602368
I just added 5,000M of liquidity to this market in case anyone needs an inducement to bet.
EDIT 2: If you want to bet on other timelines, try these markets:
Before 2024: https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-another-forbes-30-under-30-mem-baef19697dc3
Before 2030: https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-another-forbes-30-under-30-mem-51e374ea4853
1,000
3.00
This is 1,230 people new each year and goes back over a decade [1]. How likely are you to notice if one of the more minor ones is charged with fraud?
[1] "The American lists recognize 600 business and industry figures, with 30 selected in twenty industries each. Asia and Europe also each have ten categories for a total of 300 each, while Africa has a single list of 30 people." -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forbes_30_Under_30
@JeffKaufman The way this usually goes is these markets incentivize people betting yes to provide evidence of resolution. It’s possible we might miss a minor one, sure, but it won’t be just me that’s looking.
The name makes it sound exclusive, but it looks like they list over 1000 individuals each year:
Here's another market for 2030:
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-another-forbes-30-under-30-mem-51e374ea4853
Looks like I need to make another for 2024