
Resolves to YES if:
It is the case that Twitter has been blocking links to Substack posts
This is a matter of policy and not just a bug
A preponderance of credible evidence comes to light that supports this conclusion
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@LarsDoucet I am betting in this market, but if someone has strong evidence that this is not the case, I will leave the market open and resolve NO if strong enough evidence is provided
@IsaacKing Yes, but we have to establish it's a matter of policy and not a bug. We don't need ironclad proof (like a leaked memo), but we do need a preponderance of evidence (ie, good circumstantial evidence such as proof that the problems started right after the substack notes announcement. Evidence that the problem started before that would complicate that narrative).
@LarsDoucet Also it's likely for twitter/Elon to get pressed on this, and he may just straight up admit to it in some kind of defensive statement in which case this would resolve immediately