This market resolves if any time in the next ten years, in my sole opinion, the general consensus of the Tech Community is that Moore's Law is now over.

To put that in concrete terms, my understanding of Moore's Law is that it predicts that transistor density on integrated circuits doubles roughly every 18 to 24 months. Once (if?) the tech community's consensus is that we are now significantly slower than that, and the majority of people I respect in the Tech Community all seem to be saying that "Moore's Law is officially over," I will resolve this market.

Note that it doesn't have to literally be transistor density; if we come up with some clever new method to keep increasing raw single-threaded computational power (for the same cost or less as before) on the same schedule, then Moore's law is still alive for my purposes.

Pick a year. If it happens during that year, you win. You can also vote that it will not happen before 2033 (this is what to bet if you think it won't happen during our lifetimes or at all)