This market resolves after the results for Super Tuesday (March 5, 2024) are known.
If, after that, in my sole and personal judgment, it appears that the prevailing consensus is that it was a mistake for Donald Trump to not have appeared in even one of the primary debates, then this market resolves YES.
Otherwise it resolves NO.
This is regardless of whether he appears to be winning the primary as of Super Tuesday (If he is losing, then I predict that will make more people saying it was a mistake not to debate. If he is winning but it's closer than expected that might also count as evidence, but to be clear this resolves entirely on what the general consensus in American politics seems to be RE: his decision to skip at least one of the debates, regardless of whether he's doing well or not).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ177 | |
| 2 | Ṁ91 | |
| 3 | Ṁ59 | |
| 4 | Ṁ43 | |
| 5 | Ṁ40 |
A poll on 538 suggested that everyone who participated gained more people who are considering voting for them, and that people who did not participate in the debate, including Trump, had fewer people who are considering voting for them. Note that this is only considering voting for, not planning to vote for, and voters could pick multiple candidates.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/republican-debate-august-poll/ (third chart)
