Background

Trading volume on prediction markets is influenced by various factors including market interest, volatility, and participant engagement. Volume typically follows a logarithmic growth pattern, with each order of magnitude increase becoming progressively more difficult to achieve.

Resolution Criteria

Each answer will resolve independently based on whether the market's total trading volume (in Ṁ) reaches or exceeds the specified threshold at any point during the market's duration. Trading volume is calculated as the sum of all trades (both buys and sells) in the market.

• YES: The trading volume reaches or exceeds the specified threshold

• NO: The trading volume never reaches the specified threshold

• N/A: If the market closes prematurely or if there are technical issues preventing accurate volume tracking

Thresholds for resolution:

1. 100Ṁ

2. 500Ṁ

3. 1,000Ṁ

4. 5,000Ṁ

5. 10,000Ṁ

6. 50,000Ṁ

7. 100,000Ṁ

8. 500,000Ṁ

9. 1,000,000Ṁ

10. 5,000,000Ṁ

11. 10,000,000Ṁ

12. 50,000,000Ṁ

13. 100,000,000Ṁ

Considerations

• Trading volume tends to be highest during periods of uncertainty or when new information becomes available

• Early trading activity often predicts future volume patterns

• Market maturity typically leads to decreased trading volume over time

• Large individual trades can significantly impact lower volume thresholds but have less effect on higher thresholds

• The logarithmic scale means each subsequent threshold requires 5-10x more trading activity than the previous one