Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
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https://arcprize.org/leaderboard
Achieve a performance of 85% or higher on the private set of Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC), a challenging benchmark designed to test an AI's ability to solve abstract reasoning tasks with minimal prior knowledge. Even if the requirements for the grand prize change in 2025, this benchmark of >=85% performance will remain unchanged. Learn more about the competition here: https://arcprize.org/competition.
2025 version https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai-srb6t2awj1
2024 version https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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