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MANIFOLD
What number between 1-10 will chatGPT give ?
53
Ṁ1.1kṀ13k
resolved Sep 14
100%95%
7
0.8%
1
0.3%
2
0.9%
3
0.7%
4
0.4%
5
0.6%
6
0.4%
8
0.2%
9
0.4%
10
0.3%
other

  • Only one option resolves yes,

  • ChatGPT Version: GPT-4o

  • Exact Prompt: "Give me a random number between 1 and 10. Don't use python."

  • Prompt via web interface (https://chatgpt.com/) (not API, no app)

  • Description: The market resolves based on the first response ChatGPT-4o provides after being asked the prompt exactly as written. The number will be the integer value provided directly by ChatGPT-4o, without any rounding or interpretation.

  • Model used: OpenAI's GPT-4o architecture (September 2024 version)

market creator not taking part in the market

Market context
GPT-5 Speculation
ChatGPT
Language Models
Contests
GPT-4 speculation
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Resolution

bought Ṁ20 YES

Getting 7

bought Ṁ10 YES

I think something is sus with the characters. Make sure you copy paste exactly what's in the description. Strange characters can throw chat off.

https://youtu.be/WO2X3oZEJOA

My testing:

On mobile:

1: 8

7: 4

8: 2

Total: 14

On Web:

4: 1

7: 3

Total: 4

@Daniel_MC thank you for the comment, i will copy the exact the prompt in the web interface (https://chatgpt.com/), no api, no app (as describe in the description)

@Daniel_MC and cool video thanks!

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 80% order

It's absolutely wild. Over the course of 3 days, I've asked GPT-4o the prompt 28 times, and 27 times the answer was 7.

@bagelfan 7 is also the most common number if you ask humans

@ahalekelly even stronger human biases for 1-100:

@bagelfan but yeah, 7 is undervalued

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