Until what date will an OpenAI model hold the top position in the Chatbot Arena?
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19
Ṁ2776
resolved Nov 18
Resolved
YES
1st Nov 2024
Resolved
NO
1st Dec2024
Resolved
NO
1st Jan 2025
Resolved
NO
1st Feb 2025
Resolved
NO
1st Mar 2025
Resolved
NO
1st Apr 2025
Resolved
NO
1st May 2025
Resolved
NO
1st Jun 2025
Resolved
NO
1st July 2025
Resolved
NO
1st Aug 2025
Resolved
NO
1st Sep 2025
Resolved
NO
1st Oct 2025
Resolved
NO
FOREVER (OpenAI always first)

Until what date will an OpenAI model remain the top chatbot in the Chatbot Arena?

https://lmarena.ai/

  • The market will resolve to YES if an OpenAI model is the top chatbot on the specified date and for the entire month prior.

  • The market will resolve to NO if a model from any organization other than OpenAI is the top model during the month before the specified date (and will also resolve NO for subsequent dates).

Exemple:

If LLaMA becomes the top model on January 5th, 2024, the market will resolve as follows:

  • The market will resolve to NO for all dates after January 5th, 2024, since a model from an organization other than OpenAI has taken the top position.

  • Even if an OpenAI model regains the top spot later, the market will not change back to YES for any subsequent dates, as the condition for NO was met on January 5th, 2024.

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