Until what date will an OpenAI model hold the top position in the Chatbot Arena?
Standard
18
Ṁ2426
2025
87%
1st Nov 2024
48%
1st Feb 2025
48%
1st Mar 2025
45%
1st Apr 2025
45%
1st May 2025
44%
1st Jun 2025
35%
1st Dec2024
33%
1st Jan 2025
29%
1st July 2025
28%
1st Sep 2025
24%
1st Aug 2025
19%
FOREVER (OpenAI always first)
17%
1st Oct 2025

Until what date will an OpenAI model remain the top chatbot in the Chatbot Arena?

https://lmarena.ai/

  • The market will resolve to YES if an OpenAI model is the top chatbot on the specified date and for the entire month prior.

  • The market will resolve to NO if a model from any organization other than OpenAI is the top model during the month before the specified date (and will also resolve NO for subsequent dates).

Exemple:

If LLaMA becomes the top model on January 5th, 2024, the market will resolve as follows:

  • The market will resolve to NO for all dates after January 5th, 2024, since a model from an organization other than OpenAI has taken the top position.

  • Even if an OpenAI model regains the top spot later, the market will not change back to YES for any subsequent dates, as the condition for NO was met on January 5th, 2024.

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