Use Copernicus data

Background

According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2024 is expected to be the warmest year on record. The first 10 months of 2024 showed an average global temperature anomaly of 0.71°C above the 1991-2020 average, which is 0.16°C warmer than the same period in 2023. The year is "virtually certain" to exceed 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels, compared to 2023 which was 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the final official annual temperature data published by the Copernicus Climate Change Service for the year 2024. The resolution will be determined by:

1. Comparing 2024's annual average temperature to the previous warmest year on record

2. The difference between these two temperatures will determine which answer resolves to YES

3. If 2024 is not the warmest year on record, that option will resolve to YES

4. All other options will resolve to NO

For example, if 2024's temperature is 0.16°C warmer than the previous record, the "0.2°C" option would resolve to YES.

Considerations

• Temperature measurements can be revised slightly after initial publication as additional data becomes available

• Resolution will use the final, official figures from Copernicus, even if they differ from preliminary estimates

• The market will use the annual average temperature difference, not individual monthly or daily records

warmest by 0 to 0.0499 would resolve NO for all answers