YES if we find strong evidence and reach a general scientific consensus of alien microorganisms.

Example: living or dead microbes on Mars.

NO, if we find strong evidence and reach a general scientific consensus of alien macroscopic organisms first or simultaneously with alien microorganisms.

Example: dissected E.T., clear evidence of a civilization of macroscopic organisms elsewhere, fossils of Martian plantlife.

“Alien” meaning extra-terrestrial in origin prior to human intervention. Terrestrial microscopes that spread to Mars and survived there of millions years ago would count. Terrestrial microscopes that managed to make it on a mismanaged Musk mission would not.

N/A if no general consensus of having found some sort of alien life is reached, as judged by me, by 2030. See other markets for probabilities of finding anything at all by specific dates.

In case of N/A, I will remake this market post-2030 if I am still using the site.