Will the biomarker, dimethyl sulfide, be found on the exoplanet K2-18 b?

Question

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/premium/article/hunt-for-alien-life-exoplanet-just-became-top-suspect?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=social::src=instagram::cmp=editorial::add=ig20231007science-alienlifehedcardfreetrial&linkId=239826838

[link preview]Early 2024, JWST's infrared instrumentation will scan for dimethyl sulfide, a biomarker for life.

Will resolve YES if there is statistically conclusive evidence. Resolves NO if no DMS is not conclusively detected.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 6% chance (16 traders, as of Apr 17, 2025).

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