Will the biomarker, dimethyl sulfide, be found on the exoplanet K2-18 b? | Manifold

Will the biomarker, dimethyl sulfide, be found on the exoplanet K2-18 b?

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https://www.nationalgeographic.com/premium/article/hunt-for-alien-life-exoplanet-just-became-top-suspect?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=social::src=instagram::cmp=editorial::add=ig20231007science-alienlifehedcardfreetrial&linkId=239826838

In the hunt for alien life, this planet just became a top suspect

The mixture of gasses measured in exoplanet K2-18 b suggests it may have a global ocean beneath a hydrogen-rich atmosphere—and astronomers even spotted a tantalizing, though unconfirmed, sign of life.

Early 2024, JWST's infrared instrumentation will scan for dimethyl sulfide, a biomarker for life.

Will resolve YES if there is statistically conclusive evidence. Resolves NO if no DMS is not conclusively detected.

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If anyone wants to buy yes, hit me up and I can provide liquidity. Don't want to leave limit orders up incase the news comes out against me.

predicts NO

I was pretty excited by this, but news media didn't mention that the DMS result is only 1 sigma, so 15% of planets without DMS would look more convincing than K2-18b.

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Related questions

Will planet k2-18b be confirmed to contain a major sign of Alien Life: DMS (dimethyl sulphide)

Will signs of life on K2-18b be confirmed?

Will K2-18b be shown to have definitive signs of alien life?

Is there life on K2-18 b?

Will K2-18b be generally agreed to harbor alien life by 2027?

By 2035, will we have measured an exoplanet atmosphere whose composition is best explained by the presence of life?

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