Will the biomarker, dimethyl sulfide, be found on the exoplanet K2-18 b? | Manifold

Will the biomarker, dimethyl sulfide, be found on the exoplanet K2-18 b?

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https://www.nationalgeographic.com/premium/article/hunt-for-alien-life-exoplanet-just-became-top-suspect?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=social::src=instagram::cmp=editorial::add=ig20231007science-alienlifehedcardfreetrial&linkId=239826838

In the hunt for alien life, this planet just became a top suspect

The mixture of gasses measured in exoplanet K2-18 b suggests it may have a global ocean beneath a hydrogen-rich atmosphere—and astronomers even spotted a tantalizing, though unconfirmed, sign of life.

Early 2024, JWST's infrared instrumentation will scan for dimethyl sulfide, a biomarker for life.

Will resolve YES if there is statistically conclusive evidence. Resolves NO if no DMS is not conclusively detected.

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If anyone wants to buy yes, hit me up and I can provide liquidity. Don't want to leave limit orders up incase the news comes out against me.

predicts NO

I was pretty excited by this, but news media didn't mention that the DMS result is only 1 sigma, so 15% of planets without DMS would look more convincing than K2-18b.

Related questions

Will planet k2-18b be confirmed to contain a major sign of Alien Life: DMS (dimethyl sulphide)

Is there life on K2-18 b?

Will K2-18b be generally agreed to harbor alien life by 2027?

Will signs of life on K2-18b be confirmed?

Will K2-18b be shown to have definitive signs of alien life?

By 2035, will we have measured an exoplanet atmosphere whose composition is best explained by the presence of life?

Related questions

Will planet k2-18b be confirmed to contain a major sign of Alien Life: DMS (dimethyl sulphide)

Will signs of life on K2-18b be confirmed?

Is there life on K2-18 b?

Will K2-18b be shown to have definitive signs of alien life?

Will K2-18b be generally agreed to harbor alien life by 2027?

By 2035, will we have measured an exoplanet atmosphere whose composition is best explained by the presence of life?