Will the superconductor dudes shut up by the end of August.
110
2kṀ10k
resolved Aug 15
Resolved
YES

Condition Sc and lk99 related tags are 0<x<500 tweets by August end.

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predictedYES

To be honest this did resolve. The superconductor dudes did shut up. Just smell of the twitter is fresh Elon backs up the data too. And to whoever feel it was unfairly resolved Im donating all my mana to the cat profile pic guy in the comments. Please abuse him/ her/ they for your lost mana.

Yours Truly

Lk-99

predictedNO

What metric was this resolved by? How can I check for myself? Or was a call made to Elon before time?

predictedNO

How can this be resolved, it’s not the end of August?

predictedYES

@mxlje "by the end of August" means at any point including the end. it's a pretty common way of resolving around here, but you gotta look specifically for "at", "by", and "before" since they're the keywords for timing and have different meanings

The fact that this was below 50% but resolved yes (and the condition is not something that should be a surprise) shows that the description / resolution criteria was not sufficient. Note that I didn't actually vote here, specifically because of my concerns with the wording.

predictedYES

@percentage I think people mostly understood it fine, bet their credence, and didn't want to put in the effort to check Twitter data 🤷

"Will the superconductor dudes shut up by the end of August" -> 500 or fewer tweets a day seems pretty clear but maybe I'm missing some ambiguity?

predictedNO

@Stralor The market maker's comment below 12 days ago seems to imply resolution at the end of the month though.

'As the world approaches midnight on 31...'

At the end I agree with @percentage that the description and criteria are not sufficient. Lesson learnt I suppose.

predictedYES

@SarkanyVar hmm I see what you mean. I wasn't tracking the comments. It definitely could have been more rigorous, but I hope it wasn't surprising. Like, what about the 31st seems special that it ought to resolve then but not now?

predictedYES

@Stralor anyway, despite it resolving early, big props to the creator for not buying up all the remaining YES shares. that takes restraint and clearly that would have been MORE of an upset to the unprepared

predictedNO

@SarkanyVar sent you a reimbursement for your lost mana - I agree the criteria were non obvious.

predictedNO

@RobertCousineau You are most generous, thank you!

predictedNO

@RobertCousineau Thank you!

0<x<500

So if there are exactly 0 tweets with the related tags, this counts as no according to the description.

predictedNO

this market seems possibly self-fulfilling, since people can xeet if they want to influence the market.

lmao this is good and needed i can feel the goalposts moving already on SC. i hope im wrong

We are so back.

500 years on the whole platform? That's *crazy* low

predictedNO

How can I check the current "x"? Is it the amount of tweets with all of these tags combined in a single day?

predictedYES

@SophusCorry As the world approaches midnight on 31 we call up Elon as ask him for the stats. 24 hour data on individual tags, not combined.

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