If, for example, AOC says "If you're a Virginian I want you to vote for Harris. But if you absolutely won't vote for Harris, I implore you to vote for RFK instead of Trump" would that count as an endorsement?

Sorry I'm confused. How come a conjunction of 3 events is being assigned a higher probability than any of the three individual events? Did you mean "or" instead of "and"?

@diracdeltafunk No. I meant 'and'. If it has a higher probability, it's because the market has failed to correct it. Thanks for asking.

@Krantz Thanks for clarifying!

I would buy more no but I'm a bit suspicious about the probability of fair resolution, given your irrational bets.