Will Princess Peach be kidnapped again by 2033?
Will Princess Peach be kidnapped again by 2033?
8
170Ṁ622033
70%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Princess Peach is kidnapped for the majority of an original Mario game by 2033, resolve to YES. Otherwise, resolve to NO. A remake/remaster of an old game where Peach is kidnapped does not resolve to YES, nor do games where she is only kidnapped for a brief period (For example, Super Mario Bros. 3, where Peach is kidnapped just prior to the final world, would not resolve to YES.) I may bet in this market.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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