Who will lead Republicans in the Senate after Mitch McConnell?
Who will lead Republicans in the Senate after Mitch McConnell?
23
1kṀ7808resolved Nov 13
100%99.0%
John Thune
0.0%
Josh Hawley
0.1%
John Barrasso
0.2%
John Cornyn
0.7%Other
Resolves to whoever becomes Senate Majority Leader or Senate Minority Leader, depending whether Republicans control the Senate. If, somehow, there are no more Republicans in the Senate before a new leader is chosen, resolve to N/A. Market close may change depending on if or when McConnell is replaced.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.