Otherwise resolves to YES.
Using the rounded number shown by default on the market.
Apr 22, 10:42am: Resolves to NO if <=20% or >=80% → Resolves to NO if <=20% or >=80% at the closure
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ119 | |
| 2 | Ṁ113 | |
| 3 | Ṁ57 | |
| 4 | Ṁ25 | |
| 5 | Ṁ25 |
If things stayed as they are then betting 1170 on yes in last second stands to win 311 (keeps to 79%)
while alternatively betting 10000 on no stands to win 889.
So should we expect % chance to move down towards the point where these two potential gains are the same and therefore it isn't clear which way it will go? Alternately perhaps the book orders are red herrings which will be removed before closure is approached. In this case perhaps % chance should move to be equidistant between 0% and 79% so approx 40%.
Either way current % chance seems way too high. (Unless you believe Renz will be biggest whale around at market closure and he will have built up a big yes position and maintain the price between 21 and 79% but someone having 4 times more mana seems a much more likely situation to me.)